A risk score to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in an elderly spanish mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk
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A risk score to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in an elderly spanish mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. / Guasch-Ferré, Marta; Bulló, Mònica; Costa, Bernardo; Martínez-Gonzalez, Miguel Ángel; Ibarrola-Jurado, Núria; Estruch, Ramon; Barrio, Francisco; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; The PREDI-PLAN Investigators, PREDI-PLAN Investigators.
In: PLoS ONE, Vol. 7, No. 3, e33437, 2012.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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T1 - A risk score to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in an elderly spanish mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk
AU - Guasch-Ferré, Marta
AU - Bulló, Mònica
AU - Costa, Bernardo
AU - Martínez-Gonzalez, Miguel Ángel
AU - Ibarrola-Jurado, Núria
AU - Estruch, Ramon
AU - Barrio, Francisco
AU - Salas-Salvadó, Jordi
AU - The PREDI-PLAN Investigators, PREDI-PLAN Investigators
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - Introduction: To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Materials and Methods: A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample). Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample). The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC). Results: The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of ≥6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%), and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. Discussion: We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire.
AB - Introduction: To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Materials and Methods: A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample). Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample). The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC). Results: The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of ≥6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%), and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. Discussion: We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire.
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0033437
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0033437
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 22442692
AN - SCOPUS:84858604446
VL - 7
JO - PLoS ONE
JF - PLoS ONE
SN - 1932-6203
IS - 3
M1 - e33437
ER -
ID: 347807581